Climate adaptation, preparedness & the doughnut

Tomelilla, a small municipality in southern Sweden, has been working with the Doughnut Economics model since 2021. Building on the model's twin goals of ecological integrity and social wellbeing, Tomelilla is developing a new decision-making tool to guide local choices. Inspired by Cornwall's "Development and Decision Wheel," this tool helps visualize the social and environmental consequences of policies and projects. During my internship in Tomelilla in the autumn, we began asking the question, could this approach also support climate adaptation and crisis preparedness? Below is a summary of some of the discussions it gave rise to.

Why adaptation and crisis preparedness?

Considering adaptation in relation to the doughnut model and its principles starts with recognising how the transgression of the climate change planetary boundary creates continuously increasing risk, as shown in the figure below (Caesar et. al., 2024). This creates a need for adapting to the changing climate. 

Adaptation is often framed as a technical challenge: strengthen flood defenses, install heat-resistant materials, upgrade infrastructure. But this can lead to "maladaptation" — solutions that address one problem but create others, especially if they ignore issues like social equity or long-term sustainability. Adaptation measures which are not perceived as fair are also meeting greater social resistance in implementation. For broader crisis preparedness in Sweden, the sector has often faced challenges in integrating social justice issues, such as gender equality where men and women traditionally have had different roles in crisis preparedness work and civil defence.

Enter the doughnut model

Adaptation and crisis preparedness must not shift or create new vulnerabilities, and also recognise the varying needs and capacities of individuals within groups which on paper might be deemed more vulnerable to a certain crisis. The doughnut model can help reframe adaptation and crisis preparedness as systemic issues. The social foundation includes key elements like housing, health, education, and gender equality — all of which influence how communities experience and recover from climate impacts, as well as other crises as was seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. The social foundation aspects align closely with national indicators of social vulnerability to climate hazards used in Sweden. By connecting the dots between physical risks and social conditions, the doughnut can guide more holistic and fair responses.

The IPCC notes that integrated, multi-sectoral solutions addressing social inequities and climate risks across systems are crucial for effective adaptation. The doughnut model could facilitate these integrated approaches through its system thinking, guiding adaptation strategies to not just respond to the immediate risks but also consider broader social and ecological goals. Further, the doughnut model is a starting point to consider root causes of vulnerability, such as socioeconomic aspects in the social foundation and the decline in biodiversity in the planetary boundaries. 

While providing many opportunities, the doughnut model might not serve all adaptation and crisis preparedness analyses needed. For example, while gender equality is a core value, not all women face the same vulnerabilities to climate hazards, as vulnerability is dynamic and context-specific. Local knowledge and deeper analysis remain essential. But the doughnut provides a starting point — a way to visualize resilience and spark new kinds of conversations.

Visualizing resilience

During a workshop in Tomelilla, the use of the doughnut model, Tomelilla's local city portrait, and its principles was tested as a tool in relation to climate adaptation and crisis preparedness, with some great ideas being shared. It was suggested that the model could help communicate why resilience isn’t just about municipal infrastructure — it's also about social connection, like knowing your neighbours, reliable housing and people’s health. Maintaining the integrity of the doughnut's content even if it is being ‘shook’ by a crisis, in this sense, becomes a way to remind people that resilience is something we build together, which can be used both for internal planning processes and external communication.

Another idea made the doughnut model’s physical boundaries more interactive. Each boundary, such as the climate change one, could be pulled out to explain the negative consequences that exceeding the planetary boundary could have, especially on the local situation. 

Summary

An internship is a fairly short time considering the breadth of these topics, with some highlights captures above. Yet, I found it really interesting to explore these aspects in Tomelilla, with the engaged team in the municipality. The doughnut model can aid in bringing in a wider group of actors into discussions but does of course not guarantee successful adaptation and crisis preparedness on its own. As put by Savini - “as a tool, the doughnut does not offer a unique course of action; it helps actors to create one”. 

The exploration of a doughnut-inspired approach in Tomelilla encourages a broader, more systemic view. Instead of only asking, "Will this adaptation work?" the municipality can also ask, "Will it work for everyone? Will it reinforce equity, resilience, and long-term sustainability?"